Week 2 proved to be another wild one in the NFL, with eight underdogs winning and the most heavily-favored team losing for the second consecutive week. If you’re fortunate enough to still be alive in your survivor contests, congrats! Now, let’s get to work!
This column will break down some of the Week 3 picks for 2024 NFL survivor contests, analyzing each team’s advantages and potential risks. All analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius, the only platform that offers customized pick recommendations designed to maximize your chances of winning NFL survivor pools.
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Week 3 presents several teams coming off upset wins that have now become popular survivor picks. In our breakdown, we’ll analyze these popular choices, carefully weighing their pros and cons. This analysis will help you decide which picks offer the best value and make the most sense for your survivor pool strategy.
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Week 3 NFL Survivor: Pick strategy
The five teams listed below serve as the most popular NFL survivor picks for Week 3, based on public pick data from the largest survivor pool hosting sites. Chances are, you’re considering at least one of them.
In our pick analysis, we focus on three key data factors:
- win odds
- pick popularity
- future value.
The ideal Week 3 survivor pick will combine these three factors:
- High win odds (making it a relatively safe choice)
- Low pick popularity (allowing you to survive while many of your opponents are eliminated)
- Low future value (meaning the team won’t be as valuable in future weeks).
However, no pick is perfect, and each week requires a careful balance of these three factors. As we break down each team, it’s important to understand two key concepts: pick popularity and expected value, which we’ll explain next.
MORE: Why the Raiders and Browns make strong Week 3 survivor picks
Pick popularity
Pick popularity, as referenced in our analysis, refers to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that will select the team in question in Week 3. Those numbers can shift over the course of the week, so make sure to check our product for the latest data.
Expected value
Expected value is one of the measures by which we evaluate each potential survivor pick. It compares the value of picking each team against all other potential options for that week.
Expected value combines win odds and pick popularity into one measure to compare the interplay of both. The concept of expected value considers all the potential outcomes of making a particular survivor pick. It goes beyond just taking the team with the best win odds.
Every week is different, and the interplay of every potential result, the number of entries picking each team, and the overall size of the pool impact the expected value of a selection.
Let’s get to the top five most heavily picked teams for Week 3 survivor contests.
Week 3 NFL Survivor: Picks and analysis
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Carolina Panthers)
Pick Popularity: 22% (Tied for most popular pick)
Point Spread: -5.0
Pros: The Raiders have no future value, and the Panthers have proven to be a favorable team to pick against in Survivor.
Cons: The Raiders are very popular, considering their relative win odds as only the seventh-largest favorite of the week, which lowers the EV.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Denver Broncos)
Pick Popularity: 22% (Tied for most popular pick)
Point Spread: -7.0
Pros: Low future value, especially in smaller pools, as they are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal again until Week 12.
Cons: Higher popularity lowers the EV a bit this week, as the Bucs are the most popular team out of the four teams favored between 6.5 and 7.5 points.
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Cleveland Browns (vs. New York Giants)
Pick Popularity: 13% (Third-most popular)
Point Spread: -6.5
Pros: Cleveland has low future value, as we don’t project them to be favored by this much again for the remainder of the season.
Cons: Cleveland offers solid, but not great, expected value (EV) due to their popularity.
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Washington Commanders)
Pick Popularity: 12% (Fourth-most Popular)
Point Spread: -9.0
Pros: Cincinnati has a higher expected value (EV) this week, as they’re the largest favorite, but with three other teams drawing more popularity.
Cons: The Bengals have future value considerations, as we project them to have three more weeks with over 70% win odds, including next week against the Panthers.
New York Jets (vs. New England Patriots)
Pick Popularity: 9% (Fifth-most popular)
Point Spread: -6.5
Pros: The Jets offer good expected value (EV), with similar win odds to other, more popular options.
Cons: The Jets have more future value than the three most popular picks (though less than Cincinnati). They also look like a top survivor option next week when they face Denver at home.
Get Expert NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks
Understanding the impact of objective metrics like win odds, pick popularity, and future value is essential for long-term success in NFL survivor pools. However, the relative importance of each factor can vary significantly depending on your pool’s size and rules.
Determining the best Week 3 pick (or combination of picks if you have multiple entries) to maximize your edge in your 2024 survivor pool requires extensive data, analysis, and time.
Our NFL Survivor Picks product streamlines this process by delivering personalized weekly pick advice that incorporates the latest matchup data, betting odds, and pick popularity trends.
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Try it out for free in Week 3 using the links below, and good luck in your survivor pools!
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