Florida coach Billy Napier appeared doomed before the start of the 2024 college football season.
The Gators have one of the toughest schedules in the FBS. Napier – in his third season – is feeling more pressure to win than ever ahead of the Week 3 home matchup against Texas A&M. ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum labeled that a “must-win game” earlier this week, and it has increased the pressure to deliver.
Florida’s last three coaches – Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen – did not make it through four full seasons in Gainesville. Will Napier be the next coach to go?
We look at the pressure on Napier ahead of the Gators’ matchup.
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Why is Billy Napier on the hot seat?
Napier was the hot coaching candidate when he replaced Mullen after the 2021 college football season. Napier had a 40-12 record in four seasons at Louisiana, and he appeared to be a perfect fit for a program looking to contend in the SEC again.
Napier is 12-15 with a 6-10 record in Southeastern Conference play. Everything but the start has been rough.
Florida had a fantastic debut under Napier – a 29-26 upset against No. 7 Utah where Anthony Richardson showed his first-round potential at quarterback. Unfortunately, that success has not translated since. Florida is 2-11 against top-25 teams under Napier – and they have lost five straight against ranked opponents by an average of 15 points per game.
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That streak continued in a 41-17 loss to Miami in the Week 1 opener.
Florida vs. AP Top 25 teams under Billy Napier
| DATE | WINNER | SCORE | LOSER | SCORE |
| Sept. 3, 2022 | Florida | 29 | No. 7 Utah | 26 |
| Sept. 10, 2022 | No. 20 Kentucky | 20 | No. 12 Florida | 12 |
| Sept. 24, 2022 | No. 11 Tennessee | 38 | No. 20 Florida | 33 |
| Oct. 29, 2022 | No. 1 Georgia | 42 | Florida | 20 |
| Nov. 25, 2022 | No. 16 Florida State | 45 | Florida | 38 |
| Dec. 17, 2022 | No. 17 Oregon State | 30 | Florida | 3 |
| Aug. 31, 2023 | No. 14 Utah | 24 | Florida | 11 |
| Sept. 16, 2023 | Florida | 29 | No. 11 Tennessee | 16 |
| Oct. 28, 2023 | No. 1 Georgia | 43 | Florida | 20 |
| Nov. 11, 2023 | No. 18 LSU | 52 | Florida | 35 |
| Nov. 18, 2023 | No. 11 Missouri | 33 | Florida | 31 |
| Nov. 25, 2023 | No. 5 Florida State | 24 | Florida | 15 |
| Aug. 31, 2024 | No. 19 Miami | 41 | Florida | 17 |
The Aggies aren’t ranked, but the Gators also have four losses to unranked teams the last two seasons. Those came against Vanderbilt and LSU in 2022, and Arkansas and Kentucky last season. A loss to Texas A&M would certainly put even more heat on Napier.
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What is Billy Napier’s contract buyout?
According to the Gainesville Sun, Napier signed a seven-year, $ 51 million contract. As of Sept. 1, 2024, that buyout would be $ 28.3 million if Napier is fired without cause.
The Gators paid Mullen a $ 12 million buyout after firing him shortly before the end of the 2021 season.
Florida 2024 schedule
Why does the Texas A&M game matter? Florida’s schedule is brutal, which was a talking point throughout the preseason.
The Gators have a brutal schedule that includes four top 10 teams in No. 7 Tennessee, No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Texas and No. 5 Ole Miss. The remaining games against in-state opponents against UCF and Florida State also will be measuring sticks. Napier is 1-5 against traditional rivals Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State.
2024 Florida remaining schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Aug. 31 | Lost to No. 19 Miami 41-24 |
| Sept. 7 | Beat Samford 45-7 |
| Sept. 14 | vs. Texas A&M |
| Sept. 21 | at Mississippi State |
| Sept. 28 | Bye |
| Oct. 5 | vs. UCF |
| Oct. 12 | at No. 7 Tennessee |
| Oct. 19 | vs. Kentucky |
| Oct. 26 | Bye |
| Nov. 2 | vs. No. 1 Georgia |
| Nov. 9 | at No. 2 Texas |
| Nov. 16 | vs. No. 16 LSU |
| Nov. 23 | vs. No. 5 Ole Miss |
| Nov. 30 | at Florida State |
Freshman quarterback DJ Lagway could be the saving grace for Napier. He passed for 456 yards against Samford in Week 2, and he will split time with Graham Mertz against the Aggies. Lagway has a high-ceiling, and he could be a reason for optimism for the rest of this season into next year.
Will Florida target Lane Kiffin as its next head coach?
On Sept. 5, Finebaum said what everybody is thinking on a radio appearance with 105.5 WNSP FM in Mobile, Ala. Would Lane Kiffin be interested if the Gators moved on from Napier?
“Absolutely,” Finebaum said. “I think Lane Kiffin would be the No. 1 target and frankly, I believe that Lane Kiffin would accept it.”
Kiffin has a history of trolling Finebaum, but he did not touch that one. Kiffin is 36-15 since taking over at Ole Miss in 2020. The Rebels are ranked No. 5 in the AP Top 25, and they have the top-ranked scoring offense (64.0 ppg.) and total offense (713.5 yards per game). Kiffin is under contract with Ole Miss through 2029, and he will make $ 8.85 million in 2025. Terms of Kiffin’s buyout are not available.
