Texans vs. Bears odds, prop bet, picks: Betting line flips in NFL's Hall of Fame Game

The traditional opening of the National Football League’s preseason schedule take place Thursday night, when the Houston Texans, one of the Cinderella teams of the 2023 season, take on the Chicago Bears in the Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio.

The point spread opened with the Bears as roughly a 2-point choice at top sports betting websites, but flipped quickly after it was announced No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams would sit out, along with the other front-line starters. As of Thursday morning, the line ranges from 1 to 1.5 points with Houston as the favorite, even though C.J. Stroud is not expected to start at QB for the Texans

The OVER/UNDER point total ranges from 31 to 32.5 on the odds boards. Such a small number was posted for only two of 285 games played last year in the regular season and playoffs but is typical for preseason games.

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Texans vs. Bears odds at BetMGM: Point spread, moneyline, total & futures

Here are the betting lines for tonight’s Hall of Fame Game at BetMGM Sportsbook.

BetMGM Sportsbook	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Texans	-1.5	OVER 31.5	-125
Bears	+1.5	UNDER 31.5	+105

Such a low total makes sense because offenses have only had a week-and-a-half of drills to smooth out the kinks. And the players who had the majority of the practice reps won’t be involved much, if at all.

That has a lot to do with why the average point total over the past eight Hall of Fame games has been 29.5. The high was 38, when Dallas beat Arizona 20-18 in 2017.

Chicago, which finished 7-10 in 2023 and last in the NFC Central, is making its third appearance in this summer classic since 2005. Another scheduled game in 2011 was canceled because of the lockout conducted by the owners.

Houston, which went from worst in the AFC South in 2022 to first in 2023 with a 10-7 record, is in its first Hall of Fame outing since its inaugural season in 2002.

Looking far ahead, the Texans’ Super Bowl odds are +1600 (Caesars, DraftKings, BetRivers). The Bears are available at +4000 (BetMGM, Caesars).

But a word of warning: In the history of the Hall of Fame game that dates to 1962 no team that participated in it went on to win the NFL title that season.

Who is playing QB for Bears and Texans in Hall of Fame Game tonight?

One thing that’s almost certain tonight is starters for both teams will stay out of harm’s way, while unheralded rookies and free agents get the vast majority of playing time.

Bears coach Matt Eberflus revealed earlier this week that Williams would not see action at quarterback. That’s wise considering he’d be operating behind a makeshift offensive line.

Tyson Bagent is expected to get plenty of work under center for Chicago tonight, and Brett Rypien and Austin Reed are also listed on the Bears’ QB depth chart.

For the Texans, Davis Mills and Case Keenum are second and third on the depth chart behind Stroud, respectively.

Texans vs. Bears injury news

For Houston, offseason acquisition Joe Mixon, formerly Cincinnati’s bell cow running back, is nursing a quadriceps injury. But he wasn’t likely to play anyway even if he had been healthy.

Texans vs. Bears props: FanDuel, DraftKings offer plenty of Hall of Fame Game betting markets

Here are some other interesting ways to bet on Thursday night’s game:

Bears touchdown props (FanDuel)

1+ passing TDs: -180
1+ rushing TDs: -140
2+ passing TDs: +300
2+ rushing TDs: +380
3+ passing TDs: +1200
3+ rushing TDs: +1800

Texans touchdown props (FanDuel)

1+ passing TDs: -210
1+ rushing TDs: -160
2+ passing TDs: +230
2+ rushing TDs: +400
3+ passing TDs: +1200
3+ rushing TDs: +1800

Hall of Fame Game winning margin props (DraftKings)

Texans by 1-6 points: +400
Bears by 1-6 points: +400
Texans by 7-12 points: +475
Bears by 7-12 points: +550
Texans by 13-18 points: +750
Bears by 13-18 points: +1000
Texans by 43+ points: +9000
Bears by 43+ points:+9000

Texans vs. Bears analysis & Hall of Fame Game picks

Houston warrants an edge based on the experience of its backup QBs.

For the Texans, ex-starters Mills and Keenum are listed at No. 2 and No. 3 on the depth chart and surely will get the bulk of the play Thursday. Mills was the team’s primary QB in 2021-22 with 26 starts. Keenum has 66 career starts plus a pair in the playoffs, including the 2017 NFC title game with Minnesota.

Those two are more likely to protect the ball better than Bagent, who has more to prove. He’s an undrafted player out of Division II Shepherd University who had four starts last year as a rookie. He had three TD throws and six INTs. Rypien was cut by the LA Rams last year, two days after playing poorly as a starter in a 20-3 loss to Green Bay.

Not to be overlooked is the weather forecast. As of early Thursday morning, according to The Weather Channel, there was a 42 percent chance of thunderstorms at kickoff, increasing to 46 percent as the game progresses.

Prediction: Texans and UNDER