In this betting preview:
Life on the PGA TOUR is quite funny at times. The Masters is one of the easiest 36-hole cuts to make, major championship or otherwise. Following Augusta National, 69 of the game’s elite just played a guaranteed 72-hole no-cut cash grab on Hilton Head Island. Now we travel to New Orleans for the Zurich Classic.
This annual event brings together 80 teams of PGA TOUR professionals. We go from 69 guys last week in the low country to 160 guys in Louisiana! Even better, only the top 33 teams and ties will make it to the weekend to compete for $ 8.9 million.
If you asked me to help make sense of it all, I just can’t. Chances are the schedule will just change again in 2025 when we figure out this calendar of events. Meanwhile, take this week for what it is: a unique opportunity.
We will limit our exposure and make the most of live betting. The ladies also have a fantastic event to bet, and with a Nelly WD on Monday the field suddenly has a chance. Cue the walk-up music and enjoy some of the pairings the PGA TOUR’s battle in the bayou is about to get started.
It pays to Read The Line. In our newsletter last week, we featured a parlay bet that turned out perfect. We predicted Scottie and Nelly to win and the combined odds earned our readers +3100! This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Zurich Classic winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Zurich Classic expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Tom Hoge and Maverick McNealy (+2500 on BetMGM)
Hoge just came away from a very strong week at the RBC Heritage. Following a Friday 64, he was the 36-hole leader. His approach game is the perfect complement to Maverick McNealy’s putter. McNealy, who finished ninth at THE PLAYERS, has played well in 2024. Together, their recent ball-striking and scoring ability makes them a great contender to take home the trophy on Sunday in New Orleans.
*BET OF THE WEEK*
Taylor Moore and Matt NeSmith to finish in the top 20: (+140 on BetMGM)
NeSmith and Moore have finished fourth at the Zurich Classic in each of the past two years. Old friends, these two can make a ton of low scores together. Moore has an excellent short game and putter, while NeSmith can keep up with the best ball-strikers in the game. Chemistry counts this week, and these two have it when they play together.
MORE: Where Nelly Zorda’s win streak stands in LPGA history
Zurich Classic live odds to win
Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of BetMGM.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Cantlay/Schauffele | +450 |
| McIlroy/Lowry | +750 |
| Theegala/Zalatoris | +850 |
| Morikawa/Kitayama | +1200 |
| Hoge/McNealy | +2500 |
| Hojgaard/Hojgaard | +2500 |
| Conners/Pendrith | +2800 |
| Fitzpatrick/Fitzpatrick | +2800 |
| Taylor/Hadwin | +2800 |
| Garnett/Straka | +3300 |
| Ghim/Kim | +4000 |
| Mitchell/Dahmen | +4000 |
| Moore/NeSmith | +4000 |
| Eckroat/Gotterup | +4500 |
| Thompson/Novak | +4500 |
| Detry/MacIntyre | +5000 |
| Horschel/Alexander | +5000 |
| Hossler/Ryder | +5000 |
| Smalley/Schmid | +5000 |
| Hardy/Riley | +5500 |
| Lee/Kim | +5500 |
| Montgomery/Griffin | +5500 |
| Wallace/Olesen | +6000 |
| Berger/Perez | +6600 |
| Higgo/Fox | +6600 |
| Phillips/Bridgeman | +6600 |
| Putnam/Highsmith | +6600 |
| Rai/Lipsky | +6600 |
| Wu/Lower | +6600 |
| List/Norlander | +6600 |
| Sigg/Hadley | +6600 |
| Yu/Pan | +6600 |
| Echavarria/Greyserman | +8000 |
| Lashley/Campos | +8000 |
| Woodland/Hodges | +8000 |
| Lawrence/Potgieter | +9000 |
| Norrman/Campillo | +9000 |
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Zurich Classic past winners, betting trends
The science of predicting who will win a team event on the PGA TOUR is difficult. I can narrow down the field to best birdie makers, but in the end the biggest intangible is ‘do these guys have chemistry on the course?’ We have witnessed it each year, starting with the first team title when Jonas Blixt and Cam Smith won. The +10000 long shots blended their skill set perfectly to take home the trophy.
Consider the annual favorites, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. They are both great golfers, but alongside their OWGR skill is a competitive friendship. This is another reason why being on site for so many weeks matters. I see these guys interact with one another all around the facility. After three years, I can really start to tell who gets along with whom.
The better your team chemistry, the better your chances are to perform. This is exactly why Tiger Woods never had a good partner in the Ryder Cup. How hard would it be to partner with Woods and live with the fear of letting him down? Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry aren’t worried about that. Our outrights will lead the field in strokes gained camaraderie.
Our outrights will also be birdie machines. The best Fourball players are aggressive scorers. That’s not always the best type of player for individual events — but in this format, give me two guys who average more than four birdies per round. I want guys who:
- lead the TOUR in opportunities gained and GIRs
- tend to go for the par-5s in two
- know how to putt
Look at some of the recent winners. Cam Smith has won this event twice, strong putter Billy Horschel plays well here, and of course, the aforementioned Patrick and Xander.
We have four par-5s and four par-4s under 400 yards. Those eight holes require solid scrambling skills to score. Short-game skill will lead to birdies in bunches, and that’s our secret weapon: guys who build their weekly birdie average by pitching the ball and using their wedges adeptly. A little acumen from close range and you can make more sub-par scores. My last key is putting from close range. The best way to separate from the field is during Foursomes. The toughest skill in alternate shot is making the last putt.
In most cases, the guy who has to knock in that testy five-footer did not hit the approach putt or chip prior. Without any feel, you must make your short putts. We see it year after year. The best putters perform better in alternate shot. Securing those short strokes keeps the team chemistry positive and your group in contention. It sounds simple, but finding the right combination between two PGA TOUR alpha players is tough. I know these teams are tight, therefore they lead our betting card in the bayou.
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Zurich Classic: TPC Louisiana breakdown
A big part of successfully betting the Zurich is understanding the format. This is not a regular 72-hole stroke play event. The 80 teams of two will compete in a Fourball (better ball of partners) format on Thursday in Round 1. On Friday, the teams switch to Foursomes (alternate shot). Those who make the cut and compete over the weekend for the first-place prize of $ 1.3 million (each) will play the same two formats again. Saturday is Fourball, and Sunday is Foursomes. These are the same two team formats you see in the Ryder Cup.
The team format began at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in 2017. Since then, the average winning score has been 22 under par. With two separate formats, it is important to note how the winners got there. The last six winners average 16 under par in the Fourball format and six under par in Foursomes. Find the right alternate shot combination and you can make some serious cash. It’s tough for a long shot to win in individual stroke play. Give everyone a partner, and the elite tend to take the title. The average winning odds of the seven champion teams is +3000.
The weather this week looks entertaining for a team battle. Temperatures are forecasted in the mid-80s and the only chance of rain comes on Sunday afternoon. The wind will be another story. Keep following the local weather, but as of now it is going to be breezy in the bayou. Round 1 starts in the mid-teens, and then by Saturday we are going to see sustained winds in the 20-mph range and gusts into the 30s. Hold onto your hats, as this Pete Dye design (2004) has 106 bunkers and eight holes where water comes into play.
TPC Louisiana has been the host venue dating back to 2005. Every team edition has been played here. The par-72 layout covers 7,425 yards. For the second week in a row, we have Pete Dye’s diabolical mind to contend with. The most noticeable feature of this flat setting are the bunkers. In stark contrast to one another, you will see some of the largest and smallest sand hazards on TOUR. The greens are the fifth-smallest on TOUR at an average of 5,225 sq/ft. Of course, these will look huge compared to the tiny targets at Harbour Town.
There’s a fair amount of drama on this design. We have four par-4s over 470 and the average par-3 length is 215 yards! The final three holes have water in play to catch your attention — and with all of these areas to avoid, that wind prediction should play havoc on the oversized field. Good luck finishing any round on time unless they light up the 18th hole. Even though it is a tough test, team scoring pushes that cutline pretty deep. The average score to get inside the top 33 and ties is six under par.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 28 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
