Only three weeks into the 2024 Major League Baseball season and already there has been significant shuffling on the Cy Young odds boards in both the American and National leagues with regard to who will be voted top pitcher.
Serious injuries to the AL and NL front-runners, poor performances by favorites and sizzling starts from pitchers who were under the radar have been major causes for the movement.
Let’s take a look at the latest MLB Cy Young Award odds at the top U.S. sports betting sites.
American League Cy Young Award odds: Burns, Skubal emerge as favorites with Cole out
New York Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole, the winner of last year’s Cy Young, stood atop the odds boards early this spring until he was sidelined with an elbow injury.
He was shut down in early March and isn’t eligible to come off the injured list till May 27. At some websites he’s off the board, but at DraftKings and Caesars he’s available at +3000.
The new favorite is …
Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles RHP ()
Burnes, whose odds have shortened from +1100, is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.28.
Acquired in an offseason trade with Milwaukee, he’s probably the favorite largely based on his reputation from having won the NL Cy Young in 2021.
For sure, he isn’t the strikeout pitcher he was that year when he averaged 12.6 per nine innings. Dating to last season his norm has been a less-gaudy 9.4.
Thus, maybe stay away from his guy unless his odds lengthen.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers LHP ()
Skubal snuck up on the baseball world last September when few people were paying attention to the Tigers. He went 4-0 the final month of the season with an ERA of 0.90 in 30 innings.
He hasn’t slowed much this season as the team’s ace with a 2-0 mark and 2.28 ERA (the same as Burnes). And his WHIP is 0.80, tied for fourth-best in the AL.
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals LHP ()
He might be the best 0-1 pitcher in baseball. Ragans has had three quality starts in his four appearances with an ERA of 1.93 and 11.2 Ks per nine innings. In his three losses the Royals have totaled five runs.
If KC can remain relevant in the standings, he could be a real Cinderella story on a team that lost 106 games last year.
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AL Cy Young favorites falling
In addition to Cole being out of the running for the AL Cy Young, a couple of preseason betting favorites have struggled early on.
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays RHP ()
Talk about bad starts to a season, in Gausman’s first three appearances he lasted a total of 9.1 innings, lost twice and had an ERA of 11.57.
That wasn’t expected from a player who finished third in the Cy Young voting last year.
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros LHP ()
Since last season’s All-Star break, when he was the unanimous favorite on charts to win the Cy Young, Valdez has struggled. His ERA was 4.66 in the season’s second half and in three postseason appearances he was 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA.
This year he’s had only two outings and is dealing with elbow soreness.
Long shots for AL Cy Young to monitor
It’s early, but here are two American League starters with long odds worth keeping an eye on.
Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles RHP ()
Bradish, who finished fourth in the voting last season and went 12.7 with a 2.83 ERA, hasn’t pitched yet this year while recovering from a sprained UCL suffered in January.
But he made his first rehab start Tuesday and fared well. If he can mirror the second half of 2023 when his ERA was 2.14, he could be a top contender again.
Jose Berrios, Toronto Blue Jays RHP ()
Berrios, a nine-year vet, is 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA, which is startling considering he never had an earned-run mark better than 3.48 his previous eight years.
If he has another dazzling start or two he might prove he’s for real and his odds could shrink big-time.
National League Cy Young odds: Strider injury opens door for Gallen, Wheeler, Glasnow
Atlanta right-hander Spencer Strider, the majors’ only 20-game winner last season, was the clear favorite to win the NL award before this season, but now is out for the rest of the year after surgery to repair the UCL in his right elbow.
That’s bad news for a lot of bettors. BetMGM reported that 13.1 percent of all tickets purchased and 21.3 percent of the handle is on Strider.
Here’s how the top of the NL oddsboards looks now:
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies RHP ()
It’s not often a guy with an 0-3 record is among the award favorites, but he does have a 3.00 ERA and is averaging 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
One issue he’s had is that Phillies hitters have backed him with a total of only six runs in his four outings.
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks RHP ()
Gallen finished third in voting last year with the second-most wins in the majors (17) for the NL champions and this year might do better based on his early results.
He’s 3-0 in four starts with a 1.64 ERA and is keeping the ball in the park, with no homers allowed. Last season he yielded 28, including an MLB-high six in the postseason.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers RHP ()
Peralta, who is the Brewers’ new ace, has a 2-0 mark with a pretty good ERA of 2.55.
But it’s his other numbers that tell the story. He leads all of baseball with 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings and has the second-lowest WHIP in the NL at 0.68.
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers RHP ()
Glasnow stood at 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA before getting battered in a home game by Washington on Monday, yielding six earned runs in five innings.
But durability is his big issue. This is his ninth year in the league and only once has he made more than 14 starts, which was last year with 21 in Tampa Bay. But he did miss the first two months of that season with an oblique strain.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LA Dodgers RHP ()
It’s probably too early to get a read on Yamamoto, a three-time MVP in Japan’s Pacific League.
In two of his four starts he threw five shutout innings in back-to-back games. But sandwiched around them he gave up eight earned runs in sixth innings when facing San Diego.
NL Cy Young long shots worth considering
Two veteran hurlers are being offered at long odds and are worth keeping tabs on, especially if the top of the NL Cy Young odds board remains crowded.
Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants LHP ()
Snell is off to very slow start, just like last year when he was 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA eight weeks into the season before going 13-3 the rest of the way with a 1.20 ERA en route to winning the NL Cy Young with San Diego.
This time, after finally signing a free-agent deal with the Giants nine days before the season, he is 0-2 with a 12.86 ERA in two outings. He apparently still needs to work himself into shape after missing most of spring training.
Edwin Diaz, New York Mets RHP ()
There’s always a chance for a star closer to catch the eyes of voters, like the Dodgers’ Eric Gagne did in 2003.
Diaz, who sat out last year because of a torn patellar tendon, has made seven appearances in 2024 and has yielded one run and two hits in seven innings.
