The new Formula 1 season is three races down in 2024 and has begun to serve up plenty of drama and surprises, as the 20 drivers head to the Suzuka International Racing Course for this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix.
After comfortable victories in both Bahrain and Saudi Arabia for three-time world champion Max Verstappen, Red Bull’s’ flying Dutchman retired just three laps into the Australian Grand Prix last time out, citing a brakes failure and missing out on the chance to extend his healthy lead in the 2024 points tallies.
That left an open field for the chasing pack to set sail for the remaining 55 laps, and Ferrari took full advantage, securing a one-two on the podium as Carlos Sainz pipped his team-mate Charles Leclerc to the chequered flag by little over two seconds.
McLaren also impressed, with Lando Norris a close third behind the Ferrari duo and Oscar Piastri slightly further back in fourth, making it a weekend to forget for Red Bull, who recorded a fifth-placed finish through Verstappen’s team-mate Sergio Perez. Perez had finished second to the Dutchman in the opening pair of races, and the resurgence of Ferrari and McLaren also cuts their lead at the top of the Constructors’ championship.
With Verstappen and Perez both out to right their wrongs from the Albert Park Circuit this time around though, they couldn’t have picked a better time, with the upcoming Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka promising to be another high-calibre race that should go right down to the wire.
As the fourth meeting of the season begins this weekend, The Sporting News have gone through all the odds offered by our partner bookmakers to come up with the best bets, tips and predictions you’ll need ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix.
F1 Japanese Grand Prix 2024 odds to win
He may have pulled up well short of the finish line in Australia last time out — in fact, he barely got going — but back-to-back-to-back world champion Max Verstappen remains the favourite to secure a third race victory from four attempts in 2024 as the Japanese Grand Prix gets underway.
A moneyline lean of -400, which represents a fractional value of 1/4, shows that the dominance of his victories in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia still leaves Verstappen at the top of BetMGM’s billing to win in Suzuka. Interestingly though, he has been separated from Red Bull team-mate Sergio Perez in the favourites list by Ferrari duo Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, with the latter victorious in Melbourne and Leclerc recording the fastest lap.
BetMGM have Perez on a +1200 moneyline, behind the +800 shared by both Leclerc and Sainz, and Lando Norris’ strong display, finishing third at the Albert Park Circuit, leave him not much further behind on +1400. His fellow driver at McLaren, Oscar Piastri, has double those odds at +2800 despite finishing fourth, ahead of Perez, last time out.
Further back are the Mercedes pair George Russell and Lewis Hamilton, both of whom failed to complete the Australian Grand Prix, although Russell’s damaged car was able to complete 56 of the 58 laps as opposed to Hamilton, who pulled up with engine trouble on lap 15. Russell and Hamilton are ranked at +4000 and +5000 respectively, with Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll rounding off the top 10.
Odds via BetMGM (USA), correct as of Thursday, April 4.
| Driver | US (BetMGM) |
| Max Verstappen | -400 |
| Charles Leclerc | +800 |
| Carlos Sainz | +800 |
| Sergio Perez | +1200 |
| Lando Norris | +1400 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2800 |
| George Russell | +4000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +5000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +6600 |
| Lance Stroll | +20000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +50000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +100000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +100000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +100000 |
| Alexander Albon | +100000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +100000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +150000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +150000 |
| Guanyu Zhou | +150000 |
| Logan Sargeant | +200000 |
MORE: Predictions and best bets for the 2024 Formula One season
F1 Japanese Grand Prix 2024: Best bet
- Pick: Verstappen, Leclerc and Sainz to all finish in the top three positions.
- Moneyline lean: +350 (BetMGM)
Barring any further issues with the brakes on his Championship-winning Red Bull, you’d back Verstappen to return with a vengeance this weekend. His withdrawal just three laps into the Australian Grand Prix — and picking up zero points in the process — threatens to blow the World Drivers’ Championship race wide open, and he’ll be keen for a return to the one-horse race that it became in 2023.
Ferrari duo Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz will certainly be up for disrupting the Dutchman’s return though, with BetMGM offering a +350 moneyline for the pair to make the top three alongside Verstappen at Suzuka. Sainz overcame the appendicitis which ruled him out of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and stormed to victory in Melbourne, while Leclerc has recorded the fastest lap of anyone at each of the last two races.
Japanese Grand Prix 2024: Prop bet
- Pick: Charles Leclerc to record the fastest lap and win the Japanese Grand Prix
- Moneyline lean: +3500 (DraftKings)
He recorded the fastest lap in both Saudi Arabia and Australia — even with Verstappen setting the pace during the former — and we believe that Charles Leclerc is ready to step up and translate that speed into a complete performance which will see him claim first place at Suzuka this weekend.
DraftKings’s offer of a +3500 moneyline suggests that this is very much an outside chance, but with potential question marks over Verstappen’s car following the events in Melbourne, and the fact that he only finished 2.366 seconds behind victorious Ferrari team-mate Sainz last time out, there may never come a better chance for Leclerc to lay down a marker in the 2024 World Drivers’ Championship race.
Japanese Grand Prix 2024: Flier bet
- Pick: Verstappen to win by 10.999+ seconds, set fastest lap, and Red Bull to complete the fastest pit stop
- Moneyline lean: +650 (BetMGM)
This kind of bet has been our pick of the bunch in previous weeks, but after a weekend in Australia which couldn’t have gone much worse for Verstappen, this bet is now more of an outside, yet still very doable, chance.
The two-week break since the waving of Albert Park Circuit’s chequered flag will have been spent meticulously assessing, fixing and improving the brakes issue on Verstappen’s car by the Red Bull team, and you’d certainly back the three-time reigning world champion to return to form at Suzuka.
This exact scenario occurred in the season’s first race at Bahrain’s International Circuit, and with a similar style of track coming up in Japan this weekend, Verstappen will be keen to get back to winning ways in as dominant a style as he possibly can.
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