Happy Hump Day, NBA hoops fans and bettors! Welcome to the lucky seventh edition of NBA Prop-A-Shot, the Sporting News’ weekly live betting blog that brings you all the best wagering advice before, during, and after the biggest games of the Wednesday night slate. Today we will be covering two marquee games: Mavericks vs. Wolves in Minnesota and Nuggets vs. Thunder in Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. ET).
Talk about an abundance of star power and storylines. We’ve got multiple MVP candidates, including Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. We have the three top seeds in the Western Conference (and four of the West’s top seven). And, of course, we have a surplus of high-value betting opportunities.
Let’s go into a little more detail about how all this works:
- On Wednesday morning and throughout the day, we share our top player prop bets and hand-picked wagers for the marquee games of the night.
- During the live window, we’ll follow our picks, surface any noteworthy lines, AND detail the angles and opportunities we look for in the live betting market.
- At the end of the night, we will follow up on each bet, discuss which of our wagers hit and which missed, and go over any major storylines or surprising developments in the NBA that may have shaken up the betting world.
This is a great chance for you to uncover new wagering strategies before and during NBA games, and see what kind of interesting moneyline, spread, and over/under developments take place throughout the night.
Seven weeks into our Prop-A-Shot series, our Wednesday best bets have gone 57-40. That’s a .588 winning percentage, and a ton of our success over the past two weeks has taken place during the live window.
Let’s get to our look-ahead picks for the Wednesday night slate, which we will update as odds change and more player props get added. Remember to check back throughout the day, and then join us this evening at 8:00 p.m. ET for updates, live value betting opportunities, and all the betting results as the games conclude.
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Thunder vs. Nuggets — 8:00 p.m. ET
SGA holds the second-shortest MVP odds on BetMGM (+350), trailing only the aforementioned Jokic (+100). He has the most 30-point performances (35) and the most 20-point performances (65) in the NBA this season. And now that his running mate Jalen Williams twisted his ankle, the All-NBA guard might see an uptick in usage in this massive divisional game.
Look, Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting and scoring a ton and it’s translating to monumental team success. OKC has spent a good deal of this season atop the Western Conference rankings, and the Thunder have already defeated the defending champions twice this season.
A victory in Denver tonight means Mark Daigneault’s squad would own a tiebreaker over Joker and company, and a strong performance by SGA would almost assuredly move him even closer to Jokic in the MVP odds. Bet on the OVER with confidence.
MORE SGA: Has the young OKC star elevated from MVP sleeper to best bet?
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Mavericks at Wolves — 8:00 p.m. ET
With elite scorer Luka Doncic out with a right ankle sprain and Kyrie Irving continuing to nurse a thumb injury, Hardaway Jr. becomes the de facto go-to scorer in Dallas as the Mavs enter the Wolves’ den. Minnesota has the best record in the Western Conference, so expectations will be low but Hardaway’s shot count should be very, very high.
As a historian of the game, I can say with certainty that the game has never seen anything like Doncic. The Slovenian star has poured in a jaw-dropping 146 points across the Mavericks’ past three games, highlighted by a 73-point performance in Atlanta on Friday. The wildest part: he did it in just 33 field-goal attempts, and also had 14 assists in the game. We’ve never seen a 73-point night with fewer shots or as many dimes.
Doncic’s impact is impossible to measure, and even more impossible to replace. But you won’t have to ask Hardaway twice to try. Over the past six games that Luka has missed, Hardaway has averaged 27.3 points per game. He poured in 32 points in two of those six games, and exploded for 41 most recently on Jan. 15. He’s a dead-eye shooter that always seems to get hotter the more shots he takes.
Doncic had averaged 36 PPG over the Mavs’ past two tilts with Minnesota, one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. This could be an absolute bloodbath, but the one thing we aren’t worried about for Dallas is Hardaway’s ability to take a ton of shots and hit the OVER for us.
MORE: Breaking down the rivalry between Luka Doncic and Devin Booker
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Nuggets at Thunder — 8:00 p.m. ET
We were all excited to bet Nikola Jokic’s triple-double prop as a best bet, as he came through with a triple-dub after we made the same pick in our Monday column (all said, he had 25 points, 16 rebounds, 12 assists against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks). However, the Serbian sensation and BetMGM odds-on leader to win MVP (+100) will sit out tonight’s game in OKC with lower back pain.
Denver commands the West’s No. 2 seed by just a half-game over OKC, which sits one game flat behind the Wolves for the top spot. The division has never been closer — the Nugs, Wolves, and Thunder are all +250 or shorter on BetMGM to win the Northwest division. Needless to say, this remains a very important game for Denver with or without the Joker running wild. That’s why we like Gordon as the “next man up” to come through for the defending champions.
Rookie of the Year candidate Chet Holmgren has been a force down low, but he will likely have to tangle with veteran center DeAndre Jordan most of the evening. And with rising Thunder star Jalen Williams nursing an ankle injury, OKC is short-handed as well. Any Thunder player who guards Gordon will be giving up size and strength to him, so we like AG to ball out against the young gunners from the Midwest.
Be sure to check in throughout the day for more props, updated lines, and up-to-the-minute news and storylines as they break. And join us from 8:00 p.m. ET until the end of the Spurs-Thunder game. We’ll be dropping live betting advice all night, looking to help you boost your bankroll and surge toward the weekend in style.
