Champions League betting favorites Manchester City get their new expanded UCL journey started with a banger matchup as they host reigning Serie A champions Inter Milan at the Etihad on Wednesday.
With the new reorganized format scrapping the old group stage and ushering in a new “league phase,” there are prime matchups all across the Champions League schedule as Pot 1 teams can be drawn against one another. It doesn’t get any more prime than a rematch of the 2023 UCL final, where Man City lifted the club’s first European title with a 1-0 victory.
City have enjoyed a winning start to the season domestically, but still feel more vulnerable of late, especially on the defensive end where they’ve conceded goals to Brentford, West Ham, and Ipswich Town in consecutive Premier League games.
Inter, meanwhile, have been held to draws against both Bonza and Genoa to begin the season, leaving them two points off the top of the table, although already no Italian side has a perfect record through four games to start the Serie A campaign.
Man City vs. Inter Milan prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Man City (-210)
- Score prediction: Man City 2-1 Inter Milan
- Best bet: Inter Milan +1 goal handicap (-105)
Given Man City’s somewhat nervy start to the season, this would be a prime position to take Inter to upset the English powerhouses…but Simone Inzaghi’s side has also looked shaky to start the year and isn’t exactly trustworthy thus far.
Weirdly, both teams looked their best against the strongest opponent faced to this point, with Man City’s only clean sheet coming against Chelsea in their Premier League opener, while Inter clobbered Europa League champions Atalanta 4-0 with all goals coming before the hour mark.
We don’t know a ton about these teams in their current iteration, but it seems like we know enough to back the favorites, even if it’s close. While there’s little value on Man City at the moneyline, backing Inter on the handicap allows for a wash for a close defeat while capitalizing on an Inter result.
The betting market has agreed, with the slight pre-kickoff line movement in favor of the hosts. Man City have dropped below the 1/2 mark, while Inter’s moneyline odds have ballooned over 5/1.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Man City win | -210 |
| Draw | +360 |
| Inter win | +525 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -135 N: -105 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -175 U: +125 |
| Man City -1.5 goals |
+115 |
| Inter +1.5 goals |
-165 |
Man City vs. Inter Milan match facts
- Date: Wednesday, September 18, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
- Referee: Glenn Nyberg (SWE)
- Last meeting: Man City 1-0 Inter (Jun. 10, 2023 | Champions League final)
Man City vs. Inter Milan best bet
- Pick: Over 3.0 total goals
- Odds: -105 (DraftKings)
While the only competitive meeting between these clubs in history finished with a 1-0 scoreline less than two years ago, there’s plenty of reason to believe that this match can be more high-scoring than that.
Major cup finals are almost always more cagey than matches from earlier in the tournament, given what’s on the line, but even in that 2023 title bout, there should have been many more goals, as the two sides combined for 21 shots worth 2.67 xG, with all six big chances missed, including four by Inter.
This season, Man City have conceded goals to three of their first four opponents, and Inter have also coughed up three goals and 4.04 xG through four league games. Nothing even really needs to be said about the attacking firepower on both sides in this matchup, with Erling Haaland and Lautaro Martinez leading potent attacking lines. There are goals in this game, and at even money with the full-goal insurance, presents strong value.
Man City vs. Inter Milan prop bet
- Pick: Inter 10+ total shots
- Odds: +115 (FanDuel)
While Inter are a team built largely on efficiency, there’s reason for them to have a decent volume of chances on goal in this match.
The Italian side has racked up double-digit efforts in all four of their Serie A matches this season, and while those all came against inferior opponents, they’re facing a Man City side that’s not quite as smothering as they once were under Pep Guardiola.
City conceded 10 shots to both Chelsea and West Ham in Premier League play this season, in two very different-looking games. They dominated 68% possession against the Hammers and managed to still give up plenty of counter-attacking chances, while they only controlled 54% possession against a high-intensity Chelsea side. City even gave up eight shots to lowly Brentford at home last time out, holding just 54% possession in that game too.
Inter can get to that threshold for sure, which is enticing at plus odds.
