The first goal for the U.S. men’s national team at the 2024 Copa America is to escape from group play and qualify for a knockout stage spot.
Many expect much more of this USMNT side, but the first step is to finish amongst the top two in Group C and qualify for the bracket-style knockout portion of the competition. Elimination from the group stage would be massively disappointing for them and would leave Gregg Berhalter’s standing as head coach in seriously hot water.
A quarterfinal place is the minimum required by most benchmarks, but some fans and media have expressed their expectation of reaching even further into the tournament. Still, in order to do that, they must first secure passage from Group C, where they were drawn alongside Uruguay, Panama, and Bolivia.
After beating Bolivia in the opener but shockingly falling to Panama, The Sporting News details what the United States must do across its final two group games to secure a knockout stage spot.
MORE: 2024 Copa America standings, schedule, fixtures, and results
2024 Copa America Group C standings
Entering the final round of group play, the U.S. sat second in Group C, which is a qualifying position. However, given their upcoming game against title contenders Uruguay, while Panama get to play basement-dwellers Bolivia, the U.S. will see themselves as underdogs to qualify for the knockout stage.
| Pos | Team | GP | Pts | W-D-L | GF | GA | GD |
| 1. | Uruguay | 2 | 6 | 2-0-0 | 8 | 1 | +7 |
| 2. | USA | 2 | 3 | 1-0-1 | 3 | 2 | +1 |
| 3. | Panama | 2 | 3 | 1-0-1 | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| 4. | Bolivia | 2 | 0 | 0-0-2 | 0 | 7 | -7 |
How USA can qualify for Copa America knockout stage
Divided into four groups of four teams each, only the two best from each group will qualify for the knockout phase.
The USMNT picked up three points with a 2-0 win over Bolivia in the first game, putting them in a strong position moving forward, but there is still work to be done. After falling a man down against Panama, the U.S. was beaten 2-1 in stunning fashion and therefore was unable to secure a knockout stage spot, instead put in a very perilous position.
Up against title contenders Uruguay in the final Group C match, the United States have their backs against the wall. They do not need to win to qualify, but anything short of victory tonight would see them need Panama to drop points against Bolivia, which is a daunting prospect considering how poor Bolivia have been.
On the flip side, a win vs. Uruguay also does not guarantee the United States a quarterfinal berth. If Panama also beat Bolivia, the U.S. must also see themselves above Panama on goal differential. They currently hold a slim two-goal advantage, but given the matchups, it’s entirely possible that Panama win by multiple goals.
How the U.S. can qualify for Copa America knockout stage
Essentially, the United States must match or better Panama’s result against Bolivia to advance through to the knockout stage.
- Win vs. Uruguay AND Panama loss or draw vs. Bolivia
- Win vs. Uruguay AND Panama win vs. Bolivia AND U.S. retains goal differential advantage over Panama
- Draw vs. Uruguay AND Panama draw or loss vs. Bolivia
- Loss vs. Uruguay AND Panama loss vs. Bolivia AND U.S. maintains goal differential advantage over both Panama and Bolivia
Copa America group stage tiebreakers
Goal differential is the primary tiebreaker for teams that finish level on points in the 2024 Copa America group stage.
Should teams also finish level on goal differential, which is possible for the U.S. and Panama if they both win and Panama makes up the goal difference disadvantage, goals scored would be the next tiebreaker. With the U.S. sitting level with Panama in that category, should Panama make up the goal difference, they would very likely see themselves ahead on this category, meaning they would qualify.
- Goal difference in all group matches
- Goals scored in all group matches
- Head-to-head record (points scored) between teams in question
- Goal difference in matches between teams in question*
- Goals scored in matches between teams in question*
- Fewest red cards
- Fewest yellow cards
- Drawing of lots
* Only applies when 3 or more teams are level at this stage of the tiebreaker heirarchy
Who could the USA play in the Copa America knockout stage?
The knockout portion of the 2024 Copa America is not structured like the European Championship or the World Cup, which scatters the two qualifiers from each group onto opposite sides of the bracket.
Instead, qualifiers from each group are situated on the same side of the bracket, making predicting where each team will land much simpler.
Should the U.S. finish top two in Group C and qualify for the knockouts, they would match up against a Group D qualifier from the opposite position. Thus, if the USMNT finish first in Group C, they would face the second-place qualifier from Group D, whereas if the U.S. finishes second in Group C, they would face the winner of Group D.
This means they would most likely match up against either Brazil or Colombia in the quarterfinals, unless either Costa Rica or Paraguay spring an upset and qualify instead.
Copa America 2024 Group C fixtures, results
| Date | Time (ET) | Match (click for tickets/recap) | Location |
| Sun, Jun. 23 | 6 p.m. | USA 2-0 Bolivia | Arlington, TX (AT&T Stadium) |
| Sun, Jun. 23 | 9 p.m. | Uruguay 3-1 Panama | Miami, FL (Hard Rock Stadium) |
| Thu, Jun. 27 | 6 p.m. | Panama 2-1 USA | Atlanta, GA (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) |
| Thu, Jun. 27 | 9 p.m. | Uruguay 5-0 Bolivia | East Rutherford, NJ (MetLife Stadium) |
| Mon, Jul. 1 | 9 p.m. | Bolivia vs. Panama | Orlando, FL (Exploria Stadium) |
| Mon, Jul. 1 | 9 p.m. | USA vs. Uruguay | Kansas City, MO (Arrowhead Stadium) |
