It’s MLB Friday, which means there is no shortage of baseball action to bet on. Every team hits the diamond today, and we’re looking at home run prop bets offered at sportsbooks.
Our HR prop picks for today include the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman, Orioles’ Anthony Santander and Yankees’ Aaron Judge.
Best MLB home run props for Friday, June 28
The prop bets below all offer odds of +230 or higher at time of publication.
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run
Although the Dodgers slugger isn’t struggling to make contact, he is struggling to put the ball out of the park. He has only 12 HRs on the season, but he does seem to be finding his way, hitting six dingers in June. Tonight, Logan Webb gets the start for the Giants.
In 31 career at-bats against Webb, Freeman averages .452, with five RBIs and one home run. Webb uses the sinker and changeup at 38% and 35 clips, respectively. In 2024, Freeman is hitting those pitches at averages of .291 and .364. With the odds as high as they are for Freeman today, this is a low-risk, high-reward option worth consideration.
Anthony Santander to hit a home run
Santander is tied for fourth in total home runs this season (21). He is also on a hot streak, registering 12 of those home runs in June. Tonight, he has a favorable matchup against Max Scherzer. Scherzer being a “favorable matchup” for a batter aren’t words often uttered, but health is a big part of that.
After recovering from offseason back surgery, Scherzer’s start tonight is only his second of the year. In his first start, this past Sunday against the Royals, he pitched five innings and didn’t allow an earned run, leading to a 4-0 win for the Rangers. However, the Orioles are a much better team at the plate.
That’s in large part due to Santander. In seven at-bats vs. Scherzer, Santander has four hits and two home runs. We’ll take a shot on Santander putting another one out of the park at attractive odds.
Aaron Judge to hit a home run
Aaron Judge leads all of MLB with 30 home runs, four better than Gunnar Henderson in second. Judge, though, has historically struggled against Yusei Kikuchi, who takes the mound for the Blue Jays today, batting only .174 in 23 plate appearances against him.
This season, Kikuchi uses the four-seamer and curveball most of his time on the mound. Judge hits those pitches at .308 and .273, respectively. It’s the slider and changeup that Judge struggles with. Kikuchi does have both pitches in his arsenal, but hitters are batting .288 against his slider, and his changeup isn’t used enough to be much of a threat.
We’re taking Judge to keep up his insane home run pace, thanks to another dinger tonight.