As we roll into the first weekend of the NFL Playoffs, our Sporting News expert betting team looks forward to another strong weekend of picks on the SuperDraft player prop market. Just like every game matters from here on out, every prop matters in our season-long contest.
For 19 Fridays in a row, my colleagues Vinnie Iyer, Nick Musial, and I have scoured SuperDraft and pinpointed the over/under props that we believe yield the most value. We then provide detailed explanations as to why those props give us the greatest chance of winning, just like our weekly best bets column unveils the top moneyline, spread, and over/under picks.
Each of us typically unveils three over/under props per week — at least nine total — from the vast offerings on SuperDraft. The concept for the column is simple: we research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, handpick the best props, and then deliver them to you.
Along the way, we keep a record of each of our weekly successes and failures — and of course, we reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the books. The more we win, the more money our readers make to boost their New Year’s bankrolls!
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Take a look at the updated standings after Week 18 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:
Our contest has never been closer, making the postseason even more exciting as we storm toward the finish line. Just like on the field, anything can happen during the four weekends of NFL Playoff action!
If you’re not familiar with SuperDraft, check it out! SD’s Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But obviously, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.
That’s where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, finds the best value, pitches our favorite props, and lets you handle the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we’ll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).
Let’s see what this weekend has in store for us, and unveil our betting experts’ nine favorite SuperDraft player props of the Wild Card round! Good luck, happy New Year, and enjoy what should be an entertaining and lucrative Week first round of the playoffs!
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NFL Prop Picks for Wild Card Weekend: Our experts’ favorite SuperDraft bets
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys vs. Packers — OVER 8 receptions (Sloan Piva)
It may seem preposterous to recommend the OVER on an eight-catch prop — but Lamb has turned into a video game cheat code, so we actually consider this value. A plethora of quality passing teams have picked apart the Packers’ soft zone defense this season, so we have no reason to believe the best home offense in the NFL will have much trouble this weekend.
CeeDee’s brilliance speaks for itself. The Offensive Player of the Year candidate has hauled in 13 catches in two consecutive games, combining for 325 yards during that span. He has logged double-digit catches in seven of the Cowboys’ 17 games, and he finished the season with a league-high 135 receptions.
That’s bad-news bears for a Packers secondary that allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 381 yards and four TDs just a few weeks ago, and one week later let otherwise-awful rookie Bryce Young throw for 312 and two TDs. Buckle up, Green Bay fans, because Lamb is about to send the Cheeseheads out to pasture.
MORE SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND BETTING:
Best Bets | Against the Spread | Moneyline
Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams @ Lions — OVER 69.5 receiving yards (Nick Musial)
Despite consecutive “down” receiving games (by Kupp’s standards), we’re betting on one of the game’s best route-runners to put forth a vintage performance against a susceptible Lions coverage unit (25th in dropback success rate).
When having to match scores against the Lions’ efficient offense, we could envision Sean McVay dialing up a heavy dosage of pass plays, giving Kupp double-digit target upside. Across the four games Kupp saw 10-plus targets this season, he averaged 76.5 receiving yards per game. Back his OVER of 69.5 with confidence.
James Cook, RB, Bills vs. Steelers — OVER 63.5 rushing yards (Vinnie Iyer)
Cook gets to see the league’s No. 19 run defense, as Pittsburgh gave up an average of 115.1 yards per game this season. The weather is expected to be typically nasty for Buffalo in January, and feeding Cook and committing to the ground has been the key to turning around the Bills’ season offensively.
That’s the ticket to Buffalo winning another key game and advancing to the divisional playoffs. Cook will get back on track with his workload in a positive game script after not hitting this number in the past two games.
MORE: Win BIG with SuperDraft! Get a free $ 10 deposit when you use promo code “TSN”!
Jerome Ford, RB, Browns at Texans — OVER 44.5 rushing yards (Piva)
As you may already know if you caught my Wild Card best bets, we have the Browns winning this contest. As such, we like Ford to help Cleveland control the pace of the game and burn some clock. Interesting factoid: the second-year man averages 50.4 yards per win and 54.9 yards per road game, as compared to 43.2 yards per loss and 41.6 yards per home game.
Ford has also gone OVER this projection eight times this season, and he has clearly separated himself from fellow running back Kareem Hunt (who touched the ball just once last weekend). Capitalize on this modest projection and ride Ford to a victory this weekend.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers vs. Eagles — OVER 233.5 passing yards (Musial)
Although Mayfield is dealing with injuries to his ankle and ribs, he’s in line for a strong passing effort against an Eagles defense that yielded the second-most passing yards per game this season (252.7). Sure, Philadelphia’s stout defensive front could give Mayfield some trouble — but as long as his steady group of blockers provides him with a clean pocket, Mayfield should make amends for his 146-yard showing against Philly back in Week 3.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams @ Lions — OVER 274.5 passing yards (Iyer)
Stafford has passed for 279 yards or more in four of Detroit’s past five games. The Lions offer up a great matchup for high passing volume and success. The Lions have the No. 27 pass defense from the regular season, allowing an average of 247.4 yards per game. Detroit will also stop the run and force Stafford to throw often opposite Jared Goff. The topper is that Stafford knows how to pass in climate-controlled Ford Field from his many years in Detroit.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions vs. Rams — OVER 7.5 receptions (Piva)
The Sun God is a little miffed that he wasn’t named to the Pro Bowl (rightly so, the dude had 119 catches, over 1,500 yards, and 10 touchdowns). As if that wasn’t motivation enough, this marks his first career playoff game and the first postseason game at Ford Field in 30 frickin’ years.
St. Brown should be targeted early and often, like usual. Over the Lions’ last three games of the season, the third-year pro hauled in 32 of his whopping 41 targets for 452 yards and four TDs. The dude is quite simply matchup-proof. Need more evidence? Look at his back-to-back performances in Weeks 6 and 7: 12 catches for 124 yards and a TD at Tampa, followed by 13 catches for 102 yards at Baltimore. WHOA.
The Rams still have a strong pass rush, led by the immortal Aaron Donald — and Los Angeles’s run defense has quietly been awesome, too — but L.A. has endured a much more difficult time containing opposing passing games ever since Jalen Ramsey took his talents to South Beach last offseason. The Rams rank in the 20s in most passing defensive categories, and they don’t have anyone nearly skilled enough to shadow ARSB as he dashes and darts around the field. We’re betting on the Sun God to shine this Sunday evening.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Eagles @ Buccaneers — OVER 60.5 rushing yards (Musial)
Swift ran all over the Buccaneers when these teams met earlier this season, totaling 130 yards on 16 carries. Another potential 15-plus carry day awaits the stud back, giving him every opportunity to record at least 61 rushing yards.
The Buccaneers’ run defense has been one of the game’s most efficient relative to their EPA/rush numbers(-0.168 EPA; fifth). However, it hasn’t been that great on a down-to-down basis, ranking 16th in rushing success rate (40.1%). Add in Jalen Hurts’ middle finger issue on his throwing hand, and we could see a run-heavy game plan from offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, an obvious plus for Swift bettors.
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Rams @ Lions — OVER 42.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
Robinson has been very consistent as the Rams’ third wide receiver of choice down the stretch behind Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The veteran has hit this number in five consecutive games with a consistent target role as L.A.’s clear overall No. 3 option. Robinson should strike gold once again in this great coverage matchup.